Which forecasts for 2025 failed to materialize, why Ukraine’s economy remains resilient despite the war, and what could threaten EU support for Ukraine in 2026? These questions were addressed in an interview with The Page by Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and an expert of the RPR Coalition.

The expert emphasizes that due to global political shifts and Ukraine’s deep dependence on external financing, the country’s economy has become far more vulnerable to a potential financial crisis than it was in 2008.

“We are much more exposed to feeling a crisis through financial instruments. Ukraine is highly dependent on external assistance and the financial capacity of the European Union,” Oksana Kuziakiv notes.

She identifies Donald Trump’s return to major politics as a turning point. Kuziakiv describes his actions as “turning over the chessboard of international rules,” destabilizing capital markets and creating new challenges for countries that rely on donor support. At the same time, she stresses that Ukraine’s EU integration has already become irreversible — the key question now is how effectively the country will cope with its internal challenges.

Among these challenges are:

• Risks of poorly designed policies. Ukrainian businesses are currently operating “from hand to mouth,” with short-term orders, which makes any incompetent government decisions particularly dangerous, especially for small businesses.

• The trap of international commitments. The authorities must fully understand their responsibility for promises made to international partners — including in the context of introducing VAT for sole proprietors. This would not only increase the tax burden but also complicate and raise the cost of tax administration.

• Security as an economic lever. If shelling becomes ineffective, businesses will be less afraid to rebuild, and people will have stronger incentives to return.

Looking ahead to 2026, Oksana Kuziakiv outlines two possible scenarios:

• Inertial scenario. If hostilities continue in their current format, the primary goal will remain business survival and the retention of clients.

• Conditional peace. If security risks decrease, an inflow of investment and territorial recovery can be expected.

The Director of IERPC warns that a “rightward drift” in EU politics could undermine the current level of solidarity with Ukraine. Therefore, it is crucial not only to rely on allies, but also to strengthen Ukraine’s own institutional and economic capacity.

Watch the full interview via the link.