As of yesterday, the updated trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU has officially entered into force, replacing the previous free trade schedules. The new arrangements are designed to reduce tariffs, expand market access, and at the same time impose new obligations on Ukraine.

What will Ukraine gain, what might it lose — and what reforms must it implement to remain part of the EU’s single market? Veronika Movchan, Research Director at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, explains this in detail in her column for European Pravda.

Find the full article at the link above — below are the ten key takeaways.

1. The first revision in almost ten years

On October 29, 2025, a new trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU came into effect — the first systematic review of market access conditions since the launch of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The previous revision in 2019 concerned only a few positions, whereas now dozens of quotas and tariffs have been updated at once.

2. Replacement of the duty-free regime under Autonomous Trade Measures

After the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the EU introduced temporary Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), which remained in effect until June 2025. Ukraine enjoyed full duty-free access to the EU market. When these measures expired, both sides returned to negotiations under the Association Agreement — now on reciprocal terms.

3. Industry remains duty-free; food products — with exceptions

The new arrangements maintain zero tariffs for most industrial goods. However, agricultural and food products still face tariff barriers, though their number has been reduced compared to 2012.

4. The EU revised tariff quotas — more, but not for everyone

Of the previous 36 tariff quotas, 31 remain: some have been merged, others removed or expanded. For example, quotas for honey, sugar, and grains have increased four- to sixfold, and a new quota for flour was created at the request of Ukrainian producers.

5. Yet part of Ukraine’s exports will suffer

Despite expanded quotas, their volumes do not always match 2024 export levels. For instance, the new EU wheat quota allows exports of only 1.3 million tons, compared to 6.4 million tons in 2024 — an 80% drop, or nearly $900 million in lost exports.

6. Overall losses — $253 million

According to estimates by the IER and the German Economic Team, the new trade terms following the end of ATMs will lead to a $1.1 billion decline in exports and an overall $253 million reduction in deliveries to the EU. The most affected sectors will be wheat, sugar, barley, poultry, eggs, and honey.

7. Markets remain, but profits don’t

Ukrainian exporters will still be able to pivot to other markets, but they will face new costs. Revenue losses are inevitable — even if export volumes remain stable.

8. Ukraine is opening its market too

Ukraine has agreed to lift or reduce import duties on about one-third of goods from the EU, including animal feed, pork, poultry, and sugar. This liberalization will be phased in gradually from 2025 to 2028 to minimize the shock for domestic producers.

9. Conditions → Standards → Integration

By 2028, Ukraine has committed to align its agricultural legislation with 22 EU acts, covering areas such as GMO regulation, pesticides, veterinary control, and industrial emissions. Fulfilling these conditions is key to maintaining and expanding market access.

10. The stick — restrictions; the carrot — further liberalization

The EU has set clear deadlines for Ukraine’s commitments. If Ukraine fails to meet them, trade terms may revert to previous DCFTA conditions.
If it succeeds, a new round of liberalization talks could begin in 2028.