The year 2024 began with an unprecedented shelling of Ukraine by Russian aggressors. This latest crime is an occasion for the world and Ukraine to finally learn the right lessons and take appropriate actions that are critical for both Ukraine’s victory and the victory of the democratic world over the aggressor that de-facto started the Third World War. Igor Burakovsky, Chairman of the Board of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, is convinced of this. In his column for NV.ua, the expert reviewed six tasks for the world and Ukraine for 2024.
Task 1. Victory as a strategic goal. The democratic world must clearly define that its goal is the unconditional victory of Ukraine and the defeat of Russia. This idea should form the basis of the strategy of assistance to Ukraine in both the military and economic dimensions. I see the victory over Russia as a victory of the global democratic community over an authoritarian regime that not only violates the norms and principles of international law, but also started a large-scale war in Europe, a region that has already seen two world wars.
Task 2. Allies’ participation in the fight against Russian aggression. So far, such participation has been realized in various forms of military, political, economic and humanitarian assistance. This assistance has been and will continue to be of critical importance to Ukraine. At the same time, I wonder whether our partners should not take a tougher military and political stance against Russia today. For example, in terms of the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, responding to occasional “arrivals” of Russian missiles on their territory, and so on. I am not calling on NATO to take direct military action against Russia, but I somehow lack a convincing demonstration of our allies’ military power and determination.
Task 3: Military assistance. What kind, when, and how much ammunition Ukraine needs is a question for military experts. At the same time, in addition to political will, intensification of military assistance requires increasing the production of national military-industrial complex, in particular military equipment and weapons for ground combat and ammunition. In fact, U.S. and European officials have admitted that NATO members were unprepared for a long, large-scale war, as politicians were “corrupted” by a long period of peace despite some local conflicts and despite the rapid maturation of Putin’s aggressive regime.
Ukraine’s allies are forced to look for ways to increase their own arms production or purchase them from manufacturing partners, including by creating special economic incentives, relaxing relevant regulations, etc. After all, now it is not only about helping Ukraine, but also about strengthening their own (allies’) defense capabilities.
Task 4. Sanctions. In such circumstances, limiting Russia’s ability to produce weapons or purchase them on international markets is of critical importance. We are talking about completely blocking Russia’s access to military and dual-use technologies, components and equipment for the manufacture of weapons and military goods. Such sanctions should be imposed by Ukraine’s partner countries both against their own companies and companies from third countries. This requires not only political will, but also a significant strengthening of the institutional capacity of government agencies that directly implement sanctions policy, legislative regulation of the rules and procedures for applying sanctions restrictions and further handling of sanctioned assets.
Task 5. A new stage of the war. I am a supporter of the view that the war has now entered the phase of a struggle of attrition. This means that Ukraine and its partners should not only recognize this fact, but also adjust their own strategy accordingly in the short, medium and long term. In terms of the goal of ensuring Ukraine’s unconditional victory and Russia’s defeat, this is a kind of new mobilization of military, diplomatic, political, and economic efforts. Therefore, such mobilization requires a separate consideration. Policy adjustments require appropriate domestic political support in Ukraine’s allied countries. Securing such support is a challenge for national political elites.
In practical terms, we all need a coherent strategy for the new phase of the war, which consists of two interrelated components. The frontline component of the strategy is provided by Ukraine, which is directly fighting the Russian aggressor. Its price is the lives of Ukrainian soldiers who are defending our land, our human, economic and humanitarian losses, the scale of which is unprecedented in the history of independent Ukraine.
The rear component is our allies, who today provide military, financial, economic and political support to Ukraine. Moreover, the management of this rear is, so to speak, collective, and the members of the “board” must take into account external and internal political and economic factors and constantly coordinate their positions and corresponding actions in various formats. An important element of such “rear management” is constant communication with third countries, given the current level of political and economic globalization.
It is worth noting that Ukraine and some members of the allied coalition have traditionally had difficult political relations (Hungary) or direct economic conflicts over agricultural trade (Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia) or international transportation (Hungary, Poland). These conflicts are accompanied by significant economic losses for Ukraine. Unfortunately, such trade disputes will continue to arise.
We also have to recognize that despite all the internal and external problems, Russia is also trying to adapt to the new conditions, and we and our allies must take this into account in our plans.
Task 6. Building up Ukraine’s military potential. Unfortunately, today and in the future, it is Ukraine that will bear the direct burden of direct military struggle against the Russian aggressor, and the scale of military assistance may not only fluctuate but also decrease.
In such circumstances, inefficient use of our own budget funds for military needs and corruption in this area is not just a crime, but a direct act of treason. And it is also a reminder that unfinished reforms (law enforcement reform, anti-corruption reform, reform of regulatory agencies, etc.) under certain conditions threaten the very existence of the Ukrainian independent state. On the other hand, the state has not yet found its place in the arms market, particularly in terms of stimulating private production of military goods, and military procurement periodically raises serious questions from the public and law enforcement agencies.
Finally, ensuring Ukraine’s economic sustainability should be the alpha and omega of all our political and economic decisions.
