The International Monetary Fund remains “lenient” with Ukraine. The eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility program is positive — several benchmarks have been postponed, and Ukraine has received the ninth tranche of nearly $500 million.

This is detailed in the Monthly Monitoring of IMF Program and Ukraine Plan Implementation under the Ukraine Facility, conducted by the RRRU consortium, of which the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting is a member.

At present, the IMF is demonstrating flexibility. “The IMF has postponed four benchmarks and added four new ones. By the end of August, the Unified Project Pipeline must be updated, and three new benchmarks are aimed at reforming the financial sector’s infrastructure,” said Oleksandra Betliy, an expert at the Institute.

Among the postponed benchmarks are the appointment of the Head of the State Customs Service, an external evaluation of the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC), an integrity check of National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) members, and the drafting of a law on critical financial sector risks. As of the end of July, Ukraine also missed two benchmarks — the appointment of the Head of the Bureau of Economic Security (BES) and the repeal of the “Lozovyi amendments.”

At the same time, the program has been supplemented with new, more complex benchmarks. One more program review is expected this year, with nearly $1.5 billion at stake.

“There is now information that a new IMF program may be introduced. The current program is meant to prepare Ukraine for reconstruction and recovery, but every IMF macro forecast keeps postponing the end of the war. The program needs to change. It must include different measures and financing mechanisms. It’s already clear that the projected budget deficit reduction from 22.1% in 2025 to 10.4% in 2026 is unrealistic,” said Oleksandra Betliy.

The situation with the EU is also becoming more complicated: for the first time, the EU has applied a “negative conditionality” clause. Due to the non-fulfillment of three indicators in Q1 2025, Ukraine did not receive €1.4 billion. For Q2, four additional indicators remain unmet — placing another €1.27 billion at risk.

The key principle guiding Ukraine’s partners — “money in exchange for reforms” — remains the main mechanism to incentivize change. The IMF program and Ukraine Plan are signals of trust for other donors and tools for coordinating international aid.

According to experts from the Institute, a slowdown in reforms threatens not only Ukraine’s European integration aspirations but also the country’s survival. Any delay or rollback in reforms (particularly related to anti-corruption institutions) could have fatal consequences. Reforms must once again become a top priority in domestic policy — not just “for the partners,” but primarily for ourselves.