Who voted For whom: demographics of the National exit poll in the 2019 Parliamentary election

Tags:

The exit poll results allow analyzing the peculiarities of voting of socio-demographic groups of voters by regional, settlement, gender and educational characteristics.

Results by regions. The Servant of the People Party was the winner in all regions of Ukraine. In the Western region, Servant of the People gained 39.4%, followed by Voice (14.1%), European Solidarity (12.7%) and Fatherland (9.9%). Svoboda Party (4.7%) received here more votes than in all other regions. But the support of the election runner-up, Opposition Platform – For Life, in the Western region was very low – a mere 2.0%.  In the Central region, Servant of the People (45.5%) is also leading, followed by European Solidarity (10.1%), Fatherland (9.6%), Opposition Platform – For Life (6.8%) Voice (5.4%). The Strength and Honor Party received the best result (5.9%) in the Central Region.  In the South, the leadership of the Servant of the People Party is the largest – 50.2%. The second place is taken by Opposition Platform For Life – 16.7%, while European Solidarity (5.9%) managed to overcome the 5% threshold in the region. Fatherland and Voice received 4.6% and 3.3% respectively in the Southern region.  In East, Servant of the People (37.6%) is also the leader, but Opposition Platform – For Life (30.3%) is a close runner-up. However, the other three parties that got into the Verkhovna Rada did not overcome the threshold in the Eastern region: European Solidarity – 4.4%, Fatherland – 3.1%, Voice – 2.0%. Instead, two parties that did not score 5% nationwide, showed good results in the Eastern and Southern regions: the Opposition Bloc Party – 8.3% in the East and 5.5% in the South, Party of Shariy – 6.5% in the East and 4.8% in the South.

Choice of the residents of settlements of different types and sizes. In the settlements of different types, Servant of the People is leading with the difference in support being small: the largest support was observed in the cities with a population of more than 100 thousand inhabitants (47.6%), the lowest support – in towns with a population of 50 to 100 thousand inhabitants (39.9%).  In the regional centers, Servant of the People (40.8%) won the most votes, followed by European Solidarity (13.0%), Opposition Platform – For Life (10.0%), Voice (8 , 9%) and Fatherland (5.5%). A peculiarity of large cities (over 100,000 inhabitants) is the higher percentage of votes received by Opposition Platform – For Life (15.5%) and Opposition Bloc (8.2%).  While Fatherland got the best result in villages (9.8%), having taken the second place there.  Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko also has the best result in rural areas (5.3%).

When comparing men and women, the differences are most pronounced in the support of Servant of the People: it was voted for by 41.7% of men and substantially more women – 46.0%.   The remaining candidates have very minor differences, mostly within the sampling error, with the exception of the European Solidarity Party, which was voted for by 9.6% of men and slightly less – 8.3% – women and Party of Shariy which was supported by 4.1% of men and 2.4% of women.

Results by age groups.. Servant of the People is the leader among voters in all age groups, but most of all – in the group of the youngest voters, 18-29 y.o., where 58.8% of voters voted for this party. Vote (9.4%), European Solidarity (7.0%) and Party of Shariy (6.8%) overcame the threshold in this group.   In the 30-39 y.o. age group, Servant of the People is also a clear leader (53.5%), followed by Voice (9.5%), European Solidarity (8.1%) and Party of Shariy (5.1%).  The voters aged 40-49 years supported mainly the below parties: Servant of the People (48.4%), European Solidarity (11.2%), Opposition Platform – For Life (7.5%), Voice (7.2%), Fatherland (5.2%).

In the 50-59 y.o. age group, the results are as follows: The Servant of the People is supported by 42.7%, Opposition Platform by 11.6%, European Solidarity by 9.1%, Fatherland by 7.9%.

Among the voters over 60 y.o., Servant of the People also received the most support, but less than in other age groups – 32.7%, while Opposition Bloc For Life received much more support than in other age groups (20.1%) as did Fatherland (11.6%).  European Solidarity (8.6%) and Strength and Honor (6.1%) also overcame the threshold among the oldest voters. While Voice received a mere 3.6% in the oldest age group.

Results by educational groups. Servant of the People is a leader in all educational groups, especially among voters with incomplete higher education (i.e. students). In the group of voters with higher education, 40.3% of the votes was received by Servant of the People, 12.8% by European Solidarity, 9.6% by Opposition Platform For Life, 8.8% by Voice , and 6.1% by Fatherland. Among the voters with incomplete higher education, Servant of the People received 52.9% of the votes, Opposition Platform – For Life – 7.6%, Voice – 7%, European Solidarity – 6.6%, the Fatherland – 5.5%, Party of Shariy – 5.1%. Among the voters with secondary special education, 46.8% voted for Servant of the People, 13.8% for Opposition Platform – For Life, 8.1% for Fatherland, and 6.5% for European Solidarity, as well as 5.1% for Voice.  In the group of voters with complete secondary education, the Servant of the People Party has 45.7%, Opposition Platform – For Life – 11.5%, Fatherland – 9.7%, European Solidarity – 6.4%, Voice received a mere 4.5%, while Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko is supported by 5.6% of voters in this educational group.  Finally, in the group of voters with incomplete secondary education, Servant of the People received 41.9% of votes, Opposition Platform – For Life – 13.3%, Fatherland – 9.3%. European Solidarity (4.3%) and Voice (3.7%) did not overcome the threshold in this education group, while the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (7.4%) and Opposition Bloc have a good result here (5.9%).

Peculiarities of voters

By region.  More than half of Voice (52%) and Svoboda (55%) voters come from Western region; Western and Central region voters dominate in the electoral base of Ukrainian Strategy (79%), Fatherland (78%), Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (77%), Strength and Honor (77%), and European Solidarity (76%). Instead, voters from the South and East make up the majority in the electoral base of Opposition Bloc (78%), Opposition Platform – For Life (74%), and Party of Shariy (69%).  The main voters of the party Servant of the People are concentrated in the Central and Southern regions (67%).

By the type of settlement. The largest percentage of rural voters can be observed in the electoral base of the Radical Party if Oleh Lyashko (62%) and Fatherland (42%), while the voters of the regional centers make up the bulk of the Party of Shariy (49%), Civic Position (49%), European Solidarity (46%), and Voice (43%).

By sex. Males prevail among Party of Shariy voters (57%), Civic Position voters (56%), and Svoboda voters (56%). There is a significant predominance of women among the voters of Opposition Bloc (61%), Ukrainian Strategy (58%), and Servant of the People (58%).

By age. The youngest voters were observed in Party of Shariy electoral base (52% of voters aged 18-40 years).  Compared to other parties, there are more young people under the age of 40 in the electoral base of the parties Voice (41%) and Servant of the People (36%). The oldest voters are observed in the electoral base of Opposition Platform – For Life (79% of voters are 50 years of age and older).  Voters who are 50 years old also make up the majority in the electoral base of Fatherland (73%), Civic Position (70%), Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (69%), Strength and Honor (68%), Opposition Bloc (67%).

By level of education, the highest number of voters with higher and incomplete higher education are observed in the electoral base of Party of Shariy (68%), European Solidarity (62%), Voice (60%), and the least – in the electoral base of the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (18%).

When did the voters of the main candidates decide which party to vote for?

In general, more than half of the voters (55%) chose a party regardless of the election campaign because they “were supporters of that party long before the election”.  This is especially true for the voters of European Solidarity (74%), Fatherland (71%), Svoboda (70%), Opposition Platform – For Life (67%), Opposition Bloc (60%). However, the voters who decided on the last day of voting or directly at the polling station were mostly observed among the voters of the parties Ukrainian Strategy (11%), Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (10%), Civic Position”(10%), Voice (9%).

_________________________________

On July 21, 2019, on the election day to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Consortium, which includes Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), and Razumkov Centre conducted National Exit Poll 2019 – Parliamentary Election.

The project, its financial and media issues are managed by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. KIIS is in charge of scientific project management, sample development and survey coordination. Exit polls were conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and Razumkov Centre.

The general population of exit polls is voters who voted at polling stations in Ukraine (except for special polling stations). In theory, the sample is representative of Ukraine as a whole, of all those polling stations where the election took place. 11,618 respondents were polled at 300 polling stations. The “secret ballot” method was used. The outreach was 74%.

Project Manager: National Exit Poll 2019 – Parliamentary Election – I. Bekeshkina

Scientific Coordinator of the Project – N. Kharchenko

Manager at Kyiv International Institute of Sociology – A. Hrushetskyi

Manager at Razumkov Centre – A. Byvhenko, M. Mishchenko

Consultant – V. Paniotto

The national exit poll during the 2019 parliamentary election is supported by international donors: Community Activity Promotion Program “Join Us!” funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and is implemented by Pact in Ukraine, the European Union Delegation to Ukraine, International Renaissance Foundation, and Embassy of Canada in Ukraine.

Download the document

Source: Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation

TOP